I realize that this post is a sharp departure from my usual subject matter. But recent events have left me a bit shell-shocked and searching for clarity among a rising chorus of angry and often biased voices. Along with the rest of the world, I have watched in horror as the events in southern Israel and the Gaza Strip have spiraled further and further out of control. There seem to be few good options left at this point. But after spending the last few days reading and thinking on the matter, l believe that, though much is still uncertain, there are currently, in my opinion, several points of clarity.

1. There is no moral equivalence between the actions of Hamas and Israel. While it is true that, depending upon one’s vantage point over the last several decades, moral failures and even atrocities can be claimed against both sides, only Hamas is perpetrating rape, murder, and unspeakable acts of savagery as officially sanctioned instruments of government policy. The October 7 attackers were not free-lance terrorists or “bad apples”.  They were acting under direct orders from the ruling authority which governs the Gaza Strip.
2. Hamas does represent Palestinians living in Gaza. Hamas won a plurality of the popular vote in the Palestinian territories (including both Gaza and the West Bank) in the last democratically held elections in 2006—44% vs Fatah’s 41%. But given the electoral system in place, it won a strong majority of parliamentary seats—74 vs Fatah’s 45. (Kaplan, 2023) Attempts at forming a unity government failed when Hamas walked away from the table and began murdering Fatah leaders in Gaza. Those who escaped fled to the West Bank and the two territories have remained split ever since. (Kaplan, 2023) So, while it is certainly true that Hamas does not represent the viewpoint of ALL Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, it is disingenuous to suggest that they have no legitimacy whatsoever as the de-facto rulers of the territory and that there is therefore no degree of collective responsibility for their actions.
3. The evolving humanitarian crisis belongs to Hamas alone.  As the de-facto governing authority over the Gaza Strip, Hamas cannot make a premeditated and officially sanctioned attack upon a neighbor and then claim that that neighbor shouldn’t retaliate on humanitarian grounds. Consider this. The 1,400 Israeli deaths since October 7 represent the equivalent (on a percentage basis) of over 50,000 when applied to the US population. Can you imagine the response if somehow a drug cartel were to take control of the Mexican government and make a cross-border incursion which cost the lives of 50,000 US citizens? And not only that, but that they gleefully published photos and videos of their atrocities across social media that were celebrated by even a small percentage of Mexican citizens. The rage of Israelis and their desire for justice is completely understandable.
4. Hamas is a religious movement, not a political one. Mosab Hassan Yousef, the son of one of Hamas’ founding leaders, put it this way. “Hamas is not a national movement. Hamas is a religious movement with a goal to establish an Islamic state. They don’t care for nationalism. Actually, they are against nationalism. …[T]hey are using the Palestinian cause only to achieve their goals, so the long-term goal… [is] transforming the Middle East and the world into an Islamic state.” (Hill, 2023) Therefore, it is useless to negotiate with Hamas as a political entity. Rather, they must be seen for what they are—religiously motivated terrorists.
5. Hamas must go. For all these reasons, it seems clear that, in order to provide the best opportunity for a lasting peace in the region, Hamas must be eliminated. Fatah will likely welcome their downfall as long as it can be done without abandoning their ultimate goal of a viable two-state solution and can be accomplished with an acceptable level of civilian casualties (if such a thing exists). Iran will saber rattle because Hamas has been a convenient proxy to keep pressure on Israel and the US and to help foment Muslim discontent around the world. However, Iran is Shia and Hamas, as a splinter group from the Muslim Brotherhood, is Sunni (Norman, 2023). To Iran, Hamas are useful apostates who are completely expendable when the price of their support grows too costly.

Beyond this, there seems endless uncertainty. What seems to me most uncertain is what the end game for Israel will be in Gaza. I can’t imagine that anyone in the Israeli leadership has a desire to reoccupy the Gaza Strip in the long-term. In addition, one must imagine that if Hamas planned the attacks as meticulously as it appears they did, they most certainly were expecting and even hoping for a massive Israeli response. One can only imagine the preparations that have been made in the dense urban environment to be found in Gaza City to inflict the maximum number of casualties on the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) tasked with rooting them out. One would have to expect the terrorist group to use the Palestinian population as human shields, insuring massive civilian casualties, as they appear to be doing already. A profusion of hidden explosive devices is a certainty and even chemical weapons such as chlorine gas are probable. There will be no winners in this scenario, least of all the largely conscript IDF.

So, what is the answer? As I stated at the outset, few good options remain. However, a recent op-ed piece by Thomas Friedman in the New York Times offers what I think is some helpful, if painful, advice.

Friedman writes, “I believe that if Israel rushes headlong into Gaza now to destroy Hamas — and does so without expressing a clear commitment to seek a two-state solution with the Palestinian Authority and end Jewish settlements deep in the West Bank — it will be making a grave mistake that will be devastating for Israeli interests and American interests…”

He goes on to say, “This is not about whether Israel has the right to retaliate against Hamas for the savage barbarism it inflicted on Israeli men, women, babies, and grandparents. It surely does. This is about doing it the right way — the way that does not play into the hands of Hamas, Iran, and Russia. If Israel goes into Gaza and takes months to kill or capture every Hamas leader and soldier but does so while expanding Jewish settlements in the West Bank — thereby making any two-state solution there with the more moderate Palestinian Authority impossible — there will be no legitimate Palestinian or Arab League or European or U.N. or NATO coalition that will ever be prepared to go into Gaza and take it off Israel’s hands. There will be no one to extract Israel and no one to help Israel pay the cost of caring for more than two million Gazans — not if Israel is run by a government that thinks, and acts, as if it can justifiably exact its revenge on Hamas while unjustifiably building an apartheidlike society run by Jewish supremacists in the West Bank. That is a completely incoherent policy…”

His suggestion? “That is why I believe that Israel would be much better off framing any Gaza operation as ‘Operation Save Our Hostages’ — rather than ‘Operation End Hamas Once and for All’ — and carrying it out, if possible, with repeated surgical strikes and special forces that can still get the Hamas leadership but also draw the brightest possible line between Gazan civilians and the Hamas dictatorship. But if Israel feels it must reoccupy Gaza to destroy Hamas and restore its deterrence and security — I repeat — it must pair that military operation with a new commitment to pursue a two-state solution with those Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza ready to make peace with Israel.” (Friedman, 2023)

As difficult as it must be to see justice delayed and to agonize over the fate of the 200 or so hostages being held in Gaza, I think Friedman is right. Israel is best served by playing the long game and being seen to do so. I realize that is much easier said than done. I am almost certain that if it were the US in such a situation, we would have neither the discipline nor the foresight. Let us pray that the Israelis do.

References

Friedman, T. (2023, October 19). Israel Is About to Make a Terrible Mistake. Retrieved from New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2023/10/19/opinion/biden-speech-israel-gaza.html

Hill, B. (2023, October 19). Son of Hamas leader breaks silence on decision to denounce terror group: ‘They don’t care’ about Palestinians. Retrieved from Fox News: https://www.foxnews.com/media/son-hamas-leader-breaks-silence-decision-denounce-terror-group-care-palestinians

Kaplan, F. (2023, October 24). How George W. Bush Helped Hamas Come to Power. Retrieved from Slate: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2023/10/was-hamas-elected-to-govern-gaza-george-w-bush-2006-palestinian-election.html

Norman, J. (2023, October 17). Hamas and Hezbollah: how they are different and why they might cooperate against Israel. Retrieved from The Conversation: https://theconversation.com/hamas-and-hezbollah-how-they-are-different-and-why-they-might-cooperate-against-israel-215737